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<p class="MsoNormal"
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1;background:#F7F7F7"><span
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New Roman";color:#252530;mso-font-kerning:18.0pt;
mso-fareast-language:TR">BP Energy Outlook 2019</span></p>
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margin-left:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;line-height:19.4pt;background:#F7F7F7"><span
style="font-size:9.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family:
"Times New
Roman";color:#252530;mso-fareast-language:TR">Release
date: 14 February 2019</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal;background:white"><a
href="https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/news-and-insights/press-releases/bp-energy-outlook-2019.pdf"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true"><span
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font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times
New Roman"; color:#252530;mso-fareast-language:TR">Press
release</span><span
style="font-size:9.5pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New
Roman";color:#252530;text-transform:uppercase;
mso-fareast-language:TR;text-decoration:none;text-underline:none">PDF /
157.5 KB </span></a><span
style="font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times
New Roman";color:black;mso-fareast-language: TR"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"
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21.05pt;background:white"><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times
New Roman";color:#666666;letter-spacing:-.1pt;
mso-fareast-language:TR">The 2019 edition of BP’s Energy
Outlook, published today, explores the key uncertainties
that could impact the shape of global energy markets out to
2040. The greatest uncertainties over this period involve
the need for more energy to support continued global
economic growth and rising prosperity, together with the
need for a more rapid transition to a lower-carbon future.
These scenarios highlight the dual challenge that the world
is facing. The Outlook also considers a number of other
issues including the possible impact of an escalation in
trade disputes and the implications of a
significant tightening in the regulation of plastics.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="margin-bottom:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;line-height:
21.05pt;background:white"><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times
New Roman";color:#666666;letter-spacing:-.1pt;
mso-fareast-language:TR"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="margin-bottom:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;line-height:
21.05pt;background:white"><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times
New Roman";color:#666666;letter-spacing:-.1pt;
mso-fareast-language:TR">Much of the narrative in the
Outlook is based on its evolving transition scenario. This
scenario and the others considered in the Outlook are
not predictions of what is likely to happen; instead, they
explore the possible implications of different judgements
and assumptions. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="margin-bottom:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;line-height:
21.05pt;background:white"><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times
New Roman";color:#666666;letter-spacing:-.1pt;
mso-fareast-language:TR"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="margin-bottom:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;line-height:
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style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times
New Roman";color:#666666;letter-spacing:-.1pt;
mso-fareast-language:TR">In the ‘Evolving Transition’
scenario, which assumes that government policies,
technologies and societal preferences evolve in a manner and
speed similar to the recent past:</span></p>
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"Times New Roman""> </span></span></span><span
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mso-fareast-language:TR">Global energy demand increases
by around a third by 2040, driven by improvements in living
standards, particularly in India, China and across Asia.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;margin-bottom:8.1pt;
margin-left:0cm;text-indent:-18.0pt;line-height:22.65pt;mso-list:l0
level1 lfo1; tab-stops:list 36.0pt;background:#F7F7F7"><span
style="font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.5pt;font-family:Symbol;
mso-fareast-font-family:Symbol;mso-bidi-font-family:Symbol;color:#666666;
letter-spacing:-.1pt;mso-fareast-language:TR"><span
style="mso-list:Ignore">·<span style="font:7.0pt
"Times New Roman""> </span></span></span><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times
New Roman";color:#666666;letter-spacing:-.1pt;
mso-fareast-language:TR">Energy consumed by industry
and buildings accounts for around 75% of this increase in
overall energy demand, while growth in energy demand from
transport slows sharply relative to the past as gains in
vehicle efficiency accelerate.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;margin-bottom:8.1pt;
margin-left:0cm;text-indent:-18.0pt;line-height:22.65pt;mso-list:l0
level1 lfo1; tab-stops:list 36.0pt;background:#F7F7F7"><span
style="font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.5pt;font-family:Symbol;
mso-fareast-font-family:Symbol;mso-bidi-font-family:Symbol;color:#666666;
letter-spacing:-.1pt;mso-fareast-language:TR"><span
style="mso-list:Ignore">·<span style="font:7.0pt
"Times New Roman""> </span></span></span><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times
New Roman";color:#666666;letter-spacing:-.1pt;
mso-fareast-language:TR">The power sector uses around 75% of
the increase in primary energy.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;margin-bottom:8.1pt;
margin-left:0cm;text-indent:-18.0pt;line-height:22.65pt;mso-list:l0
level1 lfo1; tab-stops:list 36.0pt;background:#F7F7F7"><span
style="font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.5pt;font-family:Symbol;
mso-fareast-font-family:Symbol;mso-bidi-font-family:Symbol;color:#666666;
letter-spacing:-.1pt;mso-fareast-language:TR"><span
style="mso-list:Ignore">·<span style="font:7.0pt
"Times New Roman""> </span></span></span><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times
New Roman";color:#666666;letter-spacing:-.1pt;
mso-fareast-language:TR">85% of the growth in energy supply
is generated through renewable energy and natural gas, with
renewables becoming the largest source of global power
generation by 2040.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;margin-bottom:8.1pt;
margin-left:0cm;text-indent:-18.0pt;line-height:22.65pt;mso-list:l0
level1 lfo1; tab-stops:list 36.0pt;background:#F7F7F7"><span
style="font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.5pt;font-family:Symbol;
mso-fareast-font-family:Symbol;mso-bidi-font-family:Symbol;color:#666666;
letter-spacing:-.1pt;mso-fareast-language:TR"><span
style="mso-list:Ignore">·<span style="font:7.0pt
"Times New Roman""> </span></span></span><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times
New Roman";color:#666666;letter-spacing:-.1pt;
mso-fareast-language:TR">The pace at which renewable energy
penetrates the global energy system is faster than for any
fuel in history.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;margin-bottom:8.1pt;
margin-left:0cm;text-indent:-18.0pt;line-height:22.65pt;mso-list:l0
level1 lfo1; tab-stops:list 36.0pt;background:#F7F7F7"><span
style="font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.5pt;font-family:Symbol;
mso-fareast-font-family:Symbol;mso-bidi-font-family:Symbol;color:#666666;
letter-spacing:-.1pt;mso-fareast-language:TR"><span
style="mso-list:Ignore">·<span style="font:7.0pt
"Times New Roman""> </span></span></span><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times
New Roman";color:#666666;letter-spacing:-.1pt;
mso-fareast-language:TR">Demand for oil grows in the first
half of the Outlook period before gradually plateauing,
while global coal consumption remains broadly flat. Across
all the scenarios considered in the Outlook, significant
levels of continued investment in new oil will be required
to meet oil demand in 2040. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;margin-left:0cm;text-indent:
-18.0pt;line-height:22.65pt;mso-list:l0 level1
lfo1;tab-stops:list 36.0pt; background:#F7F7F7"><span
style="font-size:10.0pt;
mso-bidi-font-size:11.5pt;font-family:Symbol;mso-fareast-font-family:Symbol;
mso-bidi-font-family:Symbol;color:#666666;letter-spacing:-.1pt;mso-fareast-language:
TR"><span style="mso-list:Ignore">·<span style="font:7.0pt
"Times New Roman""> </span></span></span><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times
New Roman";color:#666666;letter-spacing:-.1pt;
mso-fareast-language:TR">Global carbon emissions continue to
rise, signalling the need for a comprehensive set of policy
measures to achieve a substantial reduction in carbon
emissions. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="margin-bottom:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;line-height:
21.05pt;background:white"><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times
New Roman";color:#666666;letter-spacing:-.1pt;
mso-fareast-language:TR">The new Outlook was launched in
London today by Spencer Dale, group chief economist, and Bob
Dudley, group chief executive.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="margin-bottom:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;line-height:
21.05pt;background:white"><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times
New Roman";color:#666666;letter-spacing:-.1pt;
mso-fareast-language:TR"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="margin-bottom:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;line-height:
21.05pt;background:white"><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times
New Roman";color:#666666;letter-spacing:-.1pt;
mso-fareast-language:TR">“The Outlook again brings into
sharp focus just how fast the world’s energy systems are
changing, and how the dual challenge of more energy with
fewer emissions is framing the future. Meeting this
challenge will undoubtedly require many forms of energy to
play a role,” said Bob Dudley. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="margin-bottom:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;line-height:
21.05pt;background:white"><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times
New Roman";color:#666666;letter-spacing:-.1pt;
mso-fareast-language:TR"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="margin-bottom:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;line-height:
21.05pt;background:white"><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times
New Roman";color:#666666;letter-spacing:-.1pt;
mso-fareast-language:TR">“Predicting how this energy
transition will evolve is a vast, complex challenge. In BP,
we know the outcome that’s needed, but we don’t know the
exact path the transition will take. Our strategy offers us
the flexibility and agility we need to meet this uncertainty
head on.” </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="margin-bottom:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;line-height:
21.05pt;background:white"><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times
New Roman";color:#666666;letter-spacing:-.1pt;
mso-fareast-language:TR"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="margin-bottom:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;line-height:
21.05pt;background:white"><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times
New Roman";color:#666666;letter-spacing:-.1pt;
mso-fareast-language:TR">“The world of energy is changing,”
agrees Spencer Dale. “Renewables and natural gas together
account for the great majority of the growth in primary
energy. In our evolving transition scenario, 85% of new
energy is lower carbon.” </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="margin-bottom:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;line-height:
21.05pt;background:white"><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times
New Roman";color:#666666;letter-spacing:-.1pt;
mso-fareast-language:TR"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="line-height:21.05pt;background:white"><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family:
"Times New
Roman";color:#666666;letter-spacing:-.1pt;mso-fareast-language:TR">Beyond
the evolving transition scenario, the Outlook considers a
number of additional scenarios. Some of the key ones are
outlined below. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="margin-top:8.1pt;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:24.25pt;
margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;mso-outline-level:2;background:white"><span
style="font-size:21.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family:
"Times New
Roman";color:#252530;letter-spacing:-.1pt;mso-fareast-language:TR">More
energy</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="margin-bottom:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;line-height:
21.05pt;background:white"><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times
New Roman";color:#666666;letter-spacing:-.1pt;
mso-fareast-language:TR">More energy will be needed to
support growth and enable billions of people to move from
low to middle incomes; this is explored in the more energy
scenario. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="margin-bottom:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;line-height:
21.05pt;background:white"><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times
New Roman";color:#666666;letter-spacing:-.1pt;
mso-fareast-language:TR"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="margin-bottom:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;line-height:
21.05pt;background:white"><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times
New Roman";color:#666666;letter-spacing:-.1pt;
mso-fareast-language:TR">There is a strong link between
human progress and energy consumption; the UN Human
Development Index suggests that increases in energy
consumption of up to around 100 gigajoules (GJ) per head are
associated with substantial increases in human development
and well-being. Today, around 80% of the world’s population
live in countries where average energy consumption is less
than 100 GJ per head. In order to reduce that number to
one-third of the population by 2040, the world would require
around 65% more energy than today, or 25% more energy than
needed in the evolving transition scenario. The increase in
energy required over and above the evolving transition
scenario is roughly the equivalent of China’s entire energy
consumption in 2017.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="margin-bottom:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;line-height:
21.05pt;background:white"><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times
New Roman";color:#666666;letter-spacing:-.1pt;
mso-fareast-language:TR"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="margin-bottom:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;line-height:
21.05pt;background:white"><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times
New Roman";color:#666666;letter-spacing:-.1pt;
mso-fareast-language:TR">Together with the more energy
scenario, the Outlook also highlights the need for further
action to reduce carbon emissions. This is the dual
challenge for the world – to provide more energy with fewer
emissions.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="margin-bottom:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;line-height:
21.05pt;background:white"><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times
New Roman";color:#666666;letter-spacing:-.1pt;
mso-fareast-language:TR"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="margin-top:8.1pt;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:24.25pt;
margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;mso-outline-level:2;background:white"><span
style="font-size:21.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family:
"Times New
Roman";color:#252530;letter-spacing:-.1pt;mso-fareast-language:TR">Rapid
transition </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="margin-bottom:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;line-height:
21.05pt;background:white"><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times
New Roman";color:#666666;letter-spacing:-.1pt;
mso-fareast-language:TR">The rapid transition scenario is
the combination of analyses throughout the Outlook which
brings together in a single scenario the policy measures in
separate lower carbon scenarios for industry and buildings,
transport and power. Doing so results in around a 45%
decline in carbon emissions by 2040 relative to current
levels – which is broadly in the middle of a sample of
external projections with claim to be consistent with
meeting the Paris climate goals. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="margin-bottom:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;line-height:
21.05pt;background:white"><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times
New Roman";color:#666666;letter-spacing:-.1pt;
mso-fareast-language:TR"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="margin-bottom:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;line-height:
21.05pt;background:white"><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times
New Roman";color:#666666;letter-spacing:-.1pt;
mso-fareast-language:TR">This fall reflects a combination
of: gains in energy efficiency; a switch to lower-carbon
fuels; material use of CCUS; and, of particular importance
in the power sector, a significant rise in the carbon
price. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="margin-bottom:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;line-height:
21.05pt;background:white"><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times
New Roman";color:#666666;letter-spacing:-.1pt;
mso-fareast-language:TR"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="margin-bottom:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;line-height:
21.05pt;background:white"><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times
New Roman";color:#666666;letter-spacing:-.1pt;
mso-fareast-language:TR">The power sector is currently the
single largest source of carbon emissions from energy use
and it is therefore critical that the world continues to
seek ways to reduce emissions from this sector. Reductions
in carbon emissions from the transport industry in all
scenarios to 2040 is relatively small in comparison. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="margin-bottom:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;line-height:
21.05pt;background:white"><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times
New Roman";color:#666666;letter-spacing:-.1pt;
mso-fareast-language:TR"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="margin-bottom:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;line-height:
21.05pt;background:white"><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times
New Roman";color:#666666;letter-spacing:-.1pt;
mso-fareast-language:TR">“Polices aimed at the power sector
are central to achieving a material reduction in carbon
emissions over the next 20 years…most of the low-hanging
fruit in terms of reducing carbon emissions is outside of
the transport sector,” said Dale.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="margin-bottom:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;line-height:
21.05pt;background:white"><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times
New Roman";color:#666666;letter-spacing:-.1pt;
mso-fareast-language:TR"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="margin-bottom:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;line-height:
21.05pt;background:white"><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times
New Roman";color:#666666;letter-spacing:-.1pt;
mso-fareast-language:TR">Even in the rapid transition
scenario, a significant level of carbon emissions remain in
2040. In order to meet the Paris climate goals, in the
second half of the century these remaining emissions would
need to be greatly reduced and offset with negative
emissions. This year’s Outlook considers which technologies
and developments may play a central role in this reduction
beyond 2040. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="margin-bottom:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;line-height:
21.05pt;background:white"><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times
New Roman";color:#666666;letter-spacing:-.1pt;
mso-fareast-language:TR"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="margin-bottom:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;line-height:
21.05pt;background:white"><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times
New Roman";color:#666666;letter-spacing:-.1pt;
mso-fareast-language:TR">A key development would be a
near-complete decarbonization of the power sector –
requiring greater use of renewables and CCUS in conjunction
with natural gas – together with greater electrification of
end-use activities (including transport). For those end-uses
that cannot be electrified, other forms of low-carbon energy
and energy carriers will be crucial, potentially including
hydrogen and bioenergy. Additionally, the importance of the
circular economy and greater adoption of carbon storage and
removal techniques are highlighted. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="margin-bottom:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;line-height:
21.05pt;background:white"><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times
New Roman";color:#666666;letter-spacing:-.1pt;
mso-fareast-language:TR"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="margin-top:8.1pt;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:24.25pt;
margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;mso-outline-level:2;background:white"><span
style="font-size:21.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family:
"Times New
Roman";color:#252530;letter-spacing:-.1pt;mso-fareast-language:TR">Less
globalization </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="margin-bottom:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;line-height:
21.05pt;background:white"><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times
New Roman";color:#666666;letter-spacing:-.1pt;
mso-fareast-language:TR">International trade underpins
economic growth and allows countries to diversify their
source of energy. In the less globalization scenario the
Outlook explores the possible impact that escalating trade
disputes could have on the global energy system. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="margin-bottom:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;line-height:
21.05pt;background:white"><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times
New Roman";color:#666666;letter-spacing:-.1pt;
mso-fareast-language:TR"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="margin-bottom:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;line-height:
21.05pt;background:white"><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times
New Roman";color:#666666;letter-spacing:-.1pt;
mso-fareast-language:TR">“The message from history is that
concerns about energy security can have persistent, scarring
effects,” said Dale. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="margin-bottom:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;line-height:
21.05pt;background:white"><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times
New Roman";color:#666666;letter-spacing:-.1pt;
mso-fareast-language:TR"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="margin-bottom:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;line-height:
21.05pt;background:white"><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times
New Roman";color:#666666;letter-spacing:-.1pt;
mso-fareast-language:TR">The scenario highlights how a
reduction in openness and trade associated with an
escalation in trade disputes could reduce worldwide GDP and
therefore energy demand. Moreover, increasing concerns about
energy security may cause countries to favour
domestically-produced energy, leading to a sharp reduction
in energy trade. The greatest impact is on net energy
exporters, who suffer a material slowdown in the growth of
oil and gas exports. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="margin-bottom:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;line-height:
21.05pt;background:white"><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times
New Roman";color:#666666;letter-spacing:-.1pt;
mso-fareast-language:TR"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="margin-top:8.1pt;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:24.25pt;
margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;mso-outline-level:2;background:white"><span
style="font-size:21.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family:
"Times New
Roman";color:#252530;letter-spacing:-.1pt;mso-fareast-language:TR">Single-use
plastics ban </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="margin-bottom:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;line-height:
21.05pt;background:white"><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times
New Roman";color:#666666;letter-spacing:-.1pt;
mso-fareast-language:TR">The single-largest projected source
of oil demand growth over the next 20 years is from the
non-combusted use of liquid fuels in industry, particularly
as a feedstock for petrochemicals, driven by the increasing
production of plastics. Growth of non-combusted demand in
the evolving transition scenario is, however, slower than in
the past, reflecting the assumption that regulations
governing the use and recycling of plastics tighten
materially over the next 20 years. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="margin-bottom:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;line-height:
21.05pt;background:white"><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times
New Roman";color:#666666;letter-spacing:-.1pt;
mso-fareast-language:TR"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="margin-bottom:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;line-height:
21.05pt;background:white"><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times
New Roman";color:#666666;letter-spacing:-.1pt;
mso-fareast-language:TR">Given the heightening environmental
concerns regarding single-use plastics, the Outlook also
considers a single-use plastics ban scenario, in which the
regulation of plastics is tightened even more quickly,
culminating in a worldwide ban on the use of all single-use
plastics from 2040 onwards. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="margin-bottom:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;line-height:
21.05pt;background:white"><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times
New Roman";color:#666666;letter-spacing:-.1pt;
mso-fareast-language:TR"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="margin-bottom:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;line-height:
21.05pt;background:white"><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times
New Roman";color:#666666;letter-spacing:-.1pt;
mso-fareast-language:TR">In this scenario, oil demand rises
more slowly than in the evolving transition scenario.
However, the Outlook cautions that the full impact on energy
growth and the environment will depend on the alternative
materials that may be used in place of single-use plastics.
A ban on single-use plastics could result in an increase in
energy demand and carbon emissions without further advances
in alternative materials and the widespread use of
collection and reuse systems. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="line-height:21.05pt;background:white"><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family:
"Times New
Roman";color:#666666;letter-spacing:-.1pt;mso-fareast-language:TR"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
</h1>
<h1 class="post-title" style="box-sizing: inherit; margin-top:
0px; margin-bottom: 20px; font-family: "Noto Serif",
serif; font-weight: bold; line-height: 50px; color: rgb(0, 0,
0); font-size: 40px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures:
normal; font-variant-caps: normal; letter-spacing: normal;
orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform:
none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;
-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255,
255); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color:
initial;"><br>
</h1>
<h1 class="post-title" style="box-sizing: inherit; margin-top:
0px; margin-bottom: 20px; font-family: "Noto Serif",
serif; font-weight: bold; line-height: 50px; color: rgb(0, 0,
0); font-size: 40px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures:
normal; font-variant-caps: normal; letter-spacing: normal;
orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform:
none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;
-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255,
255); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color:
initial;"><br>
</h1>
<h1 class="post-title" style="box-sizing: inherit; margin-top:
0px; margin-bottom: 20px; font-family: "Noto Serif",
serif; font-weight: bold; line-height: 50px; color: rgb(0, 0,
0); font-size: 40px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures:
normal; font-variant-caps: normal; letter-spacing: normal;
orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform:
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-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255,
255); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color:
initial;"><br>
</h1>
<h1 class="post-title" style="box-sizing: inherit; margin-top:
0px; margin-bottom: 20px; font-family: "Noto Serif",
serif; font-weight: bold; line-height: 50px; color: rgb(0, 0,
0); font-size: 40px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures:
normal; font-variant-caps: normal; letter-spacing: normal;
orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform:
none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;
-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255,
255); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color:
initial;">Birol Ergüven: Gelecek beş yılı öngöremiyorum</h1>
<div class="summary" style="box-sizing: inherit; padding-bottom:
20px; font-size: 15px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family:
"Noto Serif", Arial, sans-serif; font-style: normal;
font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal;
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255); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color:
initial;">
<p style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px; font-size: 18px;
line-height: 30px; color: rgb(42, 42, 42);">‘’Güneş
enerjisinin önü onbinlerce şirkete açılmalı’’</p>
</div>
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background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-style:
initial; text-decoration-color: initial;"><img
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<div class="date" style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size: 15px;
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<p style="box-sizing: inherit; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom:
1rem;"><strong style="box-sizing: inherit; font-weight:
bolder;">Limak Enerji Grubu CEO’su Birol Ergüven</strong><span> </span>SHURA
tarafından düzenlenen ”Türkiye’nin Enerji Dönüşümünde Kısa
Vadeli Yatırımları Hızlandırmak için Uzun Vadeli Çözümler”
toplantısında elektrik üretim sektöründeki sorunlara yönelik
değerlendirmelerde bulundu.</p>
<p style="box-sizing: inherit; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom:
1rem;">Birol Ergüven elektrik sektörünün birçok alanında
faaliyet gösteren bir şirket olarak büyük resmi daha yakından
görebildiklerini kaydederken, elektrik piyasasının çok taraflı
yapısı nedeniyle optimize edilmesinin zorluğuna ve özellikle
elektriğin halkın çok temel bir ihtiyacı olmasının bu alandaki
politikalarına yansıdığına dikkat çekti.</p>
<p style="box-sizing: inherit; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom:
1rem;">Türkiye’de uzun süredir kurulmaya çalışılan
liberalizasyonun esnediğini ve daha fazla liberalizasyon
uygulamalarının olduğu bir yapının belirli bir süre için
dondurulmuş gibi göründüğünü ifade eden Ergüven, gelecek
senelerde nereye gidileceğini kendisinin de öngöremediğini
fakat gelecek beş senenin önceki beş seneden farklı olacağına
vurgu yaptı.</p>
<p style="box-sizing: inherit; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom:
1rem;">Sektördeki temel sorunun sürekli arz artışına rağmen
TEİAŞ’ın tahminlerine uygun şekilde elektrik talebinin
artmaması olduğunu söyleyen Ergüven, bu nedenle oluşan düşük
fiyatın yapılan yatırımlara olumsuz etkisine dikkat çekti.</p>
<p style="box-sizing: inherit; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom:
1rem;">Enerji sektöründe son 10-15 senede gerçekleşen
yatırımlarda 7,5-8 Dolar-sent fiyat öngörülerine göre yapılan
yatırım ve finansman planlarına karşın fiyatların 4,5-5 ABD
Doları-sent düzeyine gerilediğini söyleyen Ergüven, gelinen
durumda özel sektör yatırımları yaptı çaresine baksın demenin
de kolay olmadığını, mevcut durumun yatırımcıların, politika
yapıcıların ve bankaların birlikte ele alması gereken bir konu
olduğunu söyledi.</p>
<p style="box-sizing: inherit; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom:
1rem;">Fiyatların doğru oluştuğu serbest bir piyasada
kararların doğru alınabileceğini, fiyatların değiştirildiği
bir piyasada yanlış kararlar alınabileceğini dile getiren
Birol Ergüven, sürekli yeni kanunlar ve düzenlemeler ile
zamanla kararlar içinde kaybolunduğunu, aslında herşeyin çok
basit olduğunu, karmaşıklaştırıldığı zaman düzeltmek için daha
fazla müdahale edildiğini böylelikle de tamamen istikrarsız
bir yapıya doğru gidildiğini söyledi.</p>
<p style="box-sizing: inherit; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom:
1rem;"><strong style="box-sizing: inherit; font-weight:
bolder;">‘’Güneş enerjisinin önü onbinlerce şirkete
açılmalı’’</strong></p>
<p style="box-sizing: inherit; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom:
1rem;">Yenilenebilir enerji konusunda Türkiye’de büyük
zorluklara rağmen yapılan yatırımların Türkiye’nin
potansiyelini gösterdiğini kaydeden Ergüven, bu kaynakların
yenilenebilir enerji piyasasına yansıması konusunda da güneş
enerjisi yatırımlarını örnek gösterdi.</p>
<p style="box-sizing: inherit; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom:
1rem;">Ergüven, güneş enerjisi santralleri sayesinde yaz
aylarında elektrik fiyatlarını ciddi oranda aşağı çektiğini,
ileriki dönemlerde bunun piyasaya yansımasının daha fazla
görüleceğini ifade etti.</p>
<p style="box-sizing: inherit; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom:
1rem;">Birol Ergüven sözlerini şu şekilde sürdürdü;</p>
<p style="box-sizing: inherit; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom:
1rem;">‘’Bunu açık açık konuşmak gerekiyor; beğenmediğiniz,
herkesin tu-kaka dediği öldürmek için elinden geleni yaptığı
lisansız güneş enerjisinde 5.000 MW geçildi. Kim yaptı bu
yatırımı yüzlerce insan. Büyük zorluklar içinde yaptı. 1.000
MW’lık yapmaya çalıştık ama hala ilerleyemiyoruz. Bize özgü
bir şey değil. Bir projenin olmasını istemiyorsanız çok büyük
yapın, olmamasından kesin emin olmak istiyorsanız daha da
büyük yapın. Kesin olmaz!</p>
<p style="box-sizing: inherit; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom:
1rem;">Türkiye bölgedeki en büyük güneş enerjisinden elektrik
üreten müteahhitlik şirketlerinin, teknoloji üreten
şirketlerin olduğu ülke olabilir, bunu görmemiz lazım. Bunun
için önü açılmalı, bu binlerce, onbinlerce kişiye ve şirkete
açılmalı.’’</p>
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